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  • How do house prices change after elections? Based on an analysis of house prices in elections since the 1955, in the year immediately after an election house prices have risen by 5.8% under a Conservative government and 4.9% under a Labour government. House prices under the coalition government of 2010, fell by 3.4% in the first six months before rebounding to an annual growth of 2.2%.
  • Not since February 1974 has the UK been ruled by a minority government. In the six months following that election house prices rose by just 2.1%, before rising more strongly once Labour formed a majority government in October 1974.
  • The biggest annual changes in house prices occurred after Margaret Thatcher’s retention of power in 1987 (10.3%) and the re-election of Tony Blair in 2001 (11.9%), stable strong leadership fostering growth.
  • The 2017 election was undoubtedly called as a result of Brexit and the result has not provided the mandate that was hoped for. What happens next for housing and the economy remains to be seen.
 

  • All three main political parties are pledging to build over 1 million new homes by the end of the next parliament (2022) – that’s at least 200,000 new homes per year. The Liberal Democratss aim for 300,000 pa. In 2016/2017 147,900 were completed (DCLG) so it’s a tall order. Labour would guarantee funding for the Help to Buy scheme until 2027 and both Labour and Liberal Democrats would encourage some form of new town, garden city or urban extension – which appeared in the Conservative White Paper.
  • All three promise to encourage the building of affordable social housing. Just 18% of new homes completed in 2016/17 were social housing, compared to one in four in 2012. Labour would also reintroduce Housing Benefit for those aged between 18 and 21.
  • To streamline planning, Labour would create a Department of Housing, while the Liberal Democrats would lengthen the life of a Local Plan to 15 years. The Conservatives deliver the reforms in their Housing White Paper, including freeing up land and speeding up the planning process.
  • Labour and the Liberal Democrats pledge to help the 20% of households who privately rent by improving tenant’s rights, securing three year tenancies as the norm and Labour would introduce inflation caps on rent rises. The Liberal Democrats would promote their rent to buy model of home ownership.
 

  • Since the 1970s, housing starts and completions across England and Wales have largely been on a downward trajectory.
  • The long-run average (over the last 50 years) for starts an completions has been around 190,000 per annum but after the global financial crisis lows of 93,000 (starts) per annum and 113,000 per annum (completions) had been reached.
  • Over the last few years, government initiatives which include the Starter Homes Fund, Housing Zones and Get Britain Building have helped stimulate the housebuilding industry.
  • In 2015/16 housing starts and completions were in line with each other at around 150,000 following a pick-up in delivery but this remains between 20% and 22%, respectively, below the long term average.
 

  • Salford is the UK’s hotspot for new business, with year-on-year growth of 85%, 1,393 new businesses set-up here between January and March 2017. If growth is maintained throughout 2017 over 5,200 new businesses will have made Salford their ‘home’ by the end of 2017.
  • House price growth across Salford has considerably outperformed the national average. Average price growth has been 14% over the last 12 months, with the average price of a property £144,425, 33% lower than the average for England and Wales (£216,000) where growth has been 4.1%
  • Leicester, ranks second for business start-ups with growth of 35%, with the cities of Norwich (22%), Liverpool (22%) and Oxford (18%) completing the top five. House price growth exceeds the national average in all areas except Liverpool.
  • Year-on-year growth in business start-ups across London has been just 5.1%, although the UK’s capital city still tops the league by volume. There were 57,235 new business start-ups between January and March and it is estimated one third of all startups throughout 2017 will be in London. Annual house growth across the capital now stands at just 1.5%, with average prices £472,000.
 

  • General Elections, traditionally held in May or June, have historically had the effect of dampening the usual Spring rise in the housing market. Buyers do not like instability and an Election brings a further level of uncertainty. However, there is also evidence to suggest that transaction levels pick up in the immediate aftermath of the vote.
  • During three of the last five Election years, the Spring bounce in transaction levels has been tempered. In 2015 (the most recent Election year) sales in the run-up to the vote during March and April were 9.2% lower than might have been expected.
  • However, with the unexpected timing and short run up the Election on 8th June, it is not clear whether buyers, already part way through the conveyancing process, will put the brakes on transactions.
  • The pick-up in transactions after Elections has traditionally begun almost straight away. Over the last five Election years, sales in the two months after the Election have increased, on average, by 18.1% compared to the previous two months. This compares to a rise of 13.4% during the same period in non-Election years. The pick-up in 2015 was even more pronounced. Sales in the two months after the Election rose by 21.2%.
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